Butterfly Effect

Who could have predicted that President George Bush would have any connection with the O level examination? With his visit to two-day visit to Singapore , some roads and expressway will be closed. As traffic delays can be expected, road users have been advised to allocate more time for their journey. Thus examinations that have been scheduled in the morning will start an hour later.

This incident reminds me about the Butterfly Effect which is often ascribed to Edward Lorenz, an MIT meteorologist. At the meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C. in 1972, he gave a talk entitled “Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wing in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas?”

In the chaos theory, the buttery effect is used to describe how small difference or changes in a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behaviour of the system. The idea is that a butterfly’s wing might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that eventually cause a tornado to develop.

This concept might be difficult to comprehend or believed until we realized that a two-day state visit of President George Bush has impacted on two cohorts of students taking the O and A level examination. Or that a single match has caused the haze to enveloped us in October.

This effect must be clearly understood by everyone so that collectively we take the responsibility for looking after the environment. Often when it come to environmental issues like the Green House effect, the attempt to cut down on fossil fuel consumption or the need to control pollution, we tend to think that our individual effort is not significant. There is a tendency to point finger at others who are not taking similar effect to protect the environment and thus we claim that it is a futile effort and so collectively we continue to destroy the environment.

There is an urgent need for us to understand that our individual effect, like using less electricity, fossil fuel or disposal paper products, does have an impact on the environment.Just like the insignificant butterfly with it delicate wings will cause a tornado to occur, our collective effort do have an impact on the environment. It is difficult for us to believe that our small, individual and inconsequential action has cause the progressive increase in global warming of our earth and therefore have an impact on the weather system which in turn will cause drought, flood and other extreme weather phenomena.

However, environment consciousness rank low in our society. Why should we care for the environment? What is in it for me? As long as it does not affect me now, why should I care how it will affect others in future? No sea-food in forty years time? No problem. I will be dead by then.

But several unexpected and unexplained heat waves and flooding in different parts of the world are indication that the worst is yet to come. Thus, Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change provided a different perspective to motivate us to save the environment. According to this report compiled by Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK government, the world has to act now on climate change or face devastating economic consequences. It postulates that extreme weather could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 1% while a two to three degree Celsius rise in temperature could reduce global economic output by 3%. If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10% of global output could be lost.

If appealing to our heart string does not push us out of our complacency, perhaps appealing to our economic pocket will. A good example would be how the Land Transport Authority (LTA) and the National Environment Agency (NEA) encourage and promote the use of green cars and taxis. Owners of these green vehicles are given rebates of 40% of the car’s Open Market Value.We should look at other economic carrots that will encourage us to do our part in saving the environment. Time is running out and we do not have the luxury to be wrong.